When at least one investor is Bearish on First Solar, and gets this much coverage on the media, then I would say to start doing the opposite.
With the recent market correction, maybe it's time to start getting Bullish. First Solar looks Bullish to me around the $130 - $145.
On TheStreet.com news regarding this:
Right out of the gate today, an investor's put spread purchase trumped normal daily options volume in First Solar (FSLR Quote) despite a positive outlook from analysts. FSLR second-quarter earnings are due on July 29. Analysts expect a 36-cent drop in earnings, even after the solar semiconductor manufacturer beat analysts' estimates by 50 cents last quarter. FSLR is approximately 30% off its recent high of $202.40 reached on May 20, and it looks like at least one investor could be betting that the stock could decline further.
Latest developments on Solar Panel efficiency, and the ever shrinking costs of silicon and thin film solar panels will bring someday what is known as Grid Parity, a price barrier where Solar becomes as cheap as conventional fossil fuel sources of energy(mainly the coal and gas power plants)
Moore’s law does apply to solar panel technology and grid parity might be coming sooner than later.
Some recent articles commenting on these matters:
The Shining: Solar Power, Grid Parity, and the Cost of Power
Clean energy has a holy grail—the day when the electricity produced by solar panels and the like can compete dollar-for-dollar with electricity churned out by traditional power plants.
That day is getting closer all the time. But as Lux Research notes today in a new report, so-called “grid parity” isn’t a done deal yet, and still depends on such fickle factors as the amount of sunlight hitting rooftops and political will to underwrite hefty subsidies for solar power.
The Lux report, “The Slow Dawn of Grid Parity,” stresses a few main points. Solar power is now measured by the cost of the electricity it produces, rather the cost of installing the stuff in the first place.
That makes a big difference for consumers, utilities, and investors, Lux says, since it makes it a lot easier to compare apples with apples. That’s because solar power (like wind) costs a lot upfront, but has free fuel—so it looks more attractive when measured by the electricity it actually produces.
Grid parity represents something of a Holy Grail for solar companies — a point where they can compete on cost with conventional fossil fuel sources of energy. The race for grid parity shifted into overdrive earlier this year as a heap of new funding and the extension of tax credits were approved as part of the stimulus package. According to a new report released today from Lux Research, certain types of solar installations are now on the verge of grid parity — especially in California — but accelerating progress toward that Holy Grail has in some ways never been more at risk.
Light-absorbing nanowires may make better solar panels BY DAVID ORENSTEIN
A century after German physicist Gustav Mie derived the math to explain why the colors in some stained glass windows look especially resplendent in the sunlight, a team of Stanford engineers has built upon his work to potentially improve a means of harvesting energy from the sun.
In 1907 Mie realized that tiny metal particles in stained glass scattered light in ways that produced beautiful colors. Now, a related interplay between light and matter explains why incredibly thin "nanowires" made of semiconductors like germanium may prove to be effective components for solar cells. Combining Mie's work with more recent theory, the Stanford team has discerned how to tune and improve the light absorption efficiency of the wires. Their research appears in the July 5 online edition of the journal Nature Materials.
With Crude Oil on its 3rd consecutive day drop, Solar Stocks keep following the Commodity, losing from -5% to -10% on most Solar Stocks.
Some examples for today: Energy Conversion Devices, Inc. (ENER) -8% First Solar, Inc. (FSLR) -5% Suntech Power Holdings Co., Ltd. (STP) -9% Canadian Solar Inc. (CSIQ) -10%
The Solar Stock ETF of reference, Claymore/MAC Global Solar Index , is down almost 7%
Keep away from Solar Stocks for a couple of days, we might get some opportunities by the end of the week. If your Short, keep those profits running.
With the US Markets closed today, we take a look at the biggest European Solar Stock, Q-Cells.
The chart shows this solar stock is still lagging behind the rest of the market, but cheap considering the size of the company, and the fact that Q-Cells SE was/is the single largest producer of solar cells in 2007 according to industry data.
With an annual production of 370 megawatts (MW), this could be the only Solar Stock that is still cheap and a good play for the mid to long term investing. And one of the most fundamentally solid companies in the Solar Sector.
Q-Cells SE, formerly Q-Cells AG, is a Germany-based company active in the field of photovoltaic. Its core business is the development, production and sale of mono- and polycrystalline, silicon-based solar cells. Its core business segment Solar Cell Production includes monocrystalline cells, comprising Q6M and Q6LM; and polycrystalline cells such as Q5, Q6, Q6LTT, Q6LTT3 and Q6LEP3, among others. The Company also offers a range of thin film modules and is engaged in Project Business.
With the upgrades given today, some Solar Stocks started to move, while others remained in the red. The TAN Solar ETF is still neutral for today, but let's compare the two biggest performers for today with the Solar Stock ETF Benchmark:
Energy Conversion Devices, Inc. (NASDAQ:ENER) is still one of the worst performers counting from the bottom of the Bear Market since March, it's low PER and the fact that its Operating Income is positive for the 1st Quarter of 2009, means this could be one of the stocks to watch in the future. Just remember that it still is a laggard: Very nice performance since the bottom, but still below the average when compared to TAN. TAN is the ETF that represents the 'Stock Index' for the whole Solar Industry, and has already recovered all of the losses since December, but still has much to recover. This should be the perfect candidate if you want to diversify in the Solar Industry, but look to the long term!
PMorgan Solar Picks (ENER, ESLR, FSLR, ASTI, SPWRA)
JPMorgan has decided to make some key solar ratings changes this morning. The firm is cautious on the valuation of some in the position of a declining market trend right now, but there are some key takeaways here that are up as well. Energy Conversion Devices, Inc. (NASDAQ: ENER) and Evergreen Solar Inc. (NASDAQ: ESLR) are up, while shares of First Solar Inc. (NASDAQ: FSLR) are getting slapped on this call today.
Ascent Solar Technologies Inc. (NASDAQ: ASTI) was upgraded to Neutral from Underweight; no trade indications have been seen as this is a low-imapct change. Energy Conversion Devices, Inc. (NASDAQ: ENER) was initiated with an Overweight; shares are trading up 4%. Evergreen Solar Inc. (NASDAQ: ESLR) was the surprise winner as it was upgraded to Overweight from Underweight; its shares are up 10% at almost $2.40 in pre-market trading. SunPower Corporation (NASDAQ: SPWRA) was also upgraded, but only to “Neutral” from Underweight; no trade indications have been yet.
The standout in the group is unfortunately the leader of the whole solar sector. First Solar Inc. (NASDAQ: FSLR) downgraded to Neutral from Overweight. Shares are still seeing thin volume but are indicated down 2% at $152.00.
