Tuesday, June 24, 2008

First Solar, Inc. rally continues

The rally continued yesterday in First Solar Inc. (NASDAQ: FSLR) and as the earnings approach, the stock seems to do it's usual Bullish run.

The general market has been going down for these last days but the solar stocks group seems to be holding up. Expect some news soon.

AmTech suggests buying shares of First Solar (FSLR) going into the company's 2Q08 earnings (July 31st, 2008). The logic? FSLR sandbags guidance, so the stock usually runs up in anticipation of a beat and raise:

Excluding the reporting period for Q407 where shares were down 34% into the print due to general macro concerns [yup, no macro concerns today...] and a difficult tech tape, shares of FSLR are up 24% on average into earnings reports [up 14% into earnings otherwise]....


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FSLR seems to be moving into May's highs, expect some resistance around $300-$310

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Thursday, June 19, 2008

Canadian Solar Inc. up 30.7% in 3 days

Canadian Solar Inc. raised it's revenue forecast, to a range of $750 million to $870 million, from its previous view of $650-$750 million.

By far the top performer, expect some resistance and probably a little correction, now that it's in new historical highs.



The increased revenue forecast largely reflects recent sales of solar modules to Pro Solar Solarstrom GmbH and Iliotec Solar GmbH of Germany. To meet the greater demand, the company's board authorized an unspecified increase in capital spending to boost capacity.


Shares of Canadian Solar rise on improved outlook

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Wednesday, June 18, 2008

SolarStocks list and Renesola updates

I've found in China Analyst Blog, a nice spreadsheet with plenty information on solarstocks trading in the US markets.

China Analyst: Solar

And some news regarding ReneSola (NYSE: SOL):

ReneSola to sell 9 mln ADS at $20.50/ADS in follow-on IPO on NYSE
LONDON (Thomson Financial) - Chinese solar wafer manufacturer ReneSola Ltd. said it is to sell a further 9 million American Depositary Shares, each representing two shares of the company, at $20.50 per ADS as part of its follow-on IPO on the New York Stock Exchange.

The company first announced details of the IPO in January 2008, where it placed a total of 10 million ADSs at $13.00 each.

In a statement Wednesday, it said 8.58 million ADSs in today's offering represent new shares being issued by ReneSola.


Yesterday's close of ReneSola (SOL) chart:

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Tuesday, June 17, 2008

Canadian Solar revises capacity targets upwards (CSIQ)

CSIQ closed today gaining more than 10%, some recent news:


Strong demand for its lower cost e-Module products that use 100 percent Upgraded Metallurgical Grade (UMG) Si has seen Canadian Solar (CSI) raise production and revenue projections for 2008. The company said that it has firm orders for 35MW of e-Modules and another 20MW of potential new orders. The sales are to be realized in the second-half of the year, CSI said. The company estimates that it will ship approximately 10 - 12 MW of e-Modules to USA and South Korea in 2008.


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Monday, June 16, 2008

SunPower upgraded (SPWR)

SunPower Corp. (SPWR) was upgraded as is up 4% on the pre-market.

The whole sector seems to be going up an average of 1% on the pre-market, and the uptrend of these last sessions seems to keep going on.

NEW YORK -

Shares of SunPower Corp. rose in premarket trading Monday, after n analyst boosted his rating on the solar power products company, saying it will likely see better-than-expected demand across the globe.

Credit Suisse analyst Satya Kumar upgraded the San Jose, Calif., company to "Outperform" from "Neutral" and kept a $100 price target.

The new target implies he expects the stock to jump 29 percent in the next year over Friday's $77.75 close.


Forbes full article

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Thursday, June 12, 2008

SolarStocks on up swing

Solar Energy Stocks started showing some reversal signals yesterday and are confirming today the up swing for the short-term.

FSLR is moving ahead almost 6% followed by SOLF, CSIQ and SPWR.

Expect some upward moves for the next days, here are some charts:

First Solar (FSLR)


SunPower Corp. (SPWR)


And the Solar ETF: Claymore/MAC Global Solar Index (TAN)
Showing some reversal signs.

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Wednesday, June 11, 2008

ARGUS Upgrades First Solar (FSLR)

ARGUS upgrades First Solar Inc. (Nasdaq: FSLR) from Hold to Buy. Price target $292.

ARGUS analyst says, "FSLR has benefited from very positive industry trends as well as from near-flawless execution of management's business plan. While the shares are likely to remain very volatile, a pullback of more than 10% since our downgrade to HOLD at the beginning of April has improved the valuation proposition. More importantly, legislative trends for solar subsidies have been less negative than originally feared. In addition, the company has yet to garner the benefits of its recent expansion of manufacturing operations to Malaysia. We anticipate only a modest uptick in sales and margins."

First Solar, Inc. designs and manufactures solar modules using a thin film semiconductor technology.

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Monday, June 09, 2008

Serbia Builds First Solar Energy Plant

Serbia's first solar power plant will be built on a municipal building in Belgrade's smallest district, local media report.

The project will cost Serbia some 300,000 euros, and will be the country's first taste of energy production from renewable sources.

The first solar cells will be installed on 110 square metres of the roof of Vracar municipal building in Belgrade, and will produce 1,000 kilowatts a month. Installation should be complete by September.

The project is a joint enterprise by Vracar municipality and the Belgrade Electro-technical Faculty.

"Modern civilisation is definitely going through an energy crisis and one of the ways of facing it is what we've started here," Faculty lecturer Nikola Rajkovic said.


Source: link

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Wednesday, June 04, 2008

SunPower and the tax credit

By Matt Daily

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Solar power company SunPower Corp (SPWR.O: Quote, Profile, Research) will meet its financial forecasts this year and in 2009, even if the U.S. government fails to renew tax incentives that expire at the end of the year, Chief Executive Officer Tom Werner said on Tuesday.

The U.S. Congress has yet to pass an extension of the Investment Tax Credit (ITC) for solar installations or similar incentives that reduce the costs of wind, biomass and other renewables that would be acceptable to the White House.

"We control our own destiny, (and) we'll be able to enter other new markets rapidly, and we believe we can hold our guidance for '08 and '09, even if the ITC doesn't pass, by moving business elsewhere," Werner told the Reuters Global Energy Summit.

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Monday, June 02, 2008

First Solar (FSLR) Sell out?

More bearish news on FSLR, but don't jump out of the boat yet:

More Bad News For First Solar (FSLR) et al: GE Sees $1B Business in 3 Years (GE, FSLR)

GE-logo(Blue-PMS7455).jpgGeneral Electric's (GE) nascent solar business now grosses only $100 million, but GE expects this to grow to $1 billion within three years.

This is a pittance compared to GE's $173 billion of revenue last year, but it would rapidly put the conglomerate in the same league as First Solar (FSLR) et al. First Solar grossed $634 million last year and is projected to generate a shade over $1 billion this year.


Like Google was specialized in the search engine niche, and Microsoft couldn't touch it, any big company competing in a niche with a smaller but already established company will probably fail. Plenty of examples in the last century, and GE isn't any different.

and some other comments:
``First Solar is the leader in this industry and I'm not going to miss this growth story like I did with Microsoft,'' Lutts said. ``Despite some short-term negatives, First Solar has a huge advantage over other producers and I view them as a long- term buy.''


First Solar could be the "Thin Film Cells Microsoft", since its the only real company with a huge step ahead in this kind of technology. And considering the cost of silicon based solar cells, I still think that thin film solar cells will invade every conceivable sunny surface in the future. Paper cheap and reliable, in the long term the Bull is unscathed.

When every news media, blog and even CEO starts publicly dumping the stock, it might be the right time not to do so.

The chart still looks bullish to me, at least until we close below Thursday's low:


I would expect a fake break-down here. More updates soon...

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